The Netanyahu-Trump Bromance: How Long Till Israel's PM Ends Up in the President's Doghouse? - Opinion - Haaretz.com
While we all ran around chasing U.S. President Donald Trump's unimplementable proposal to depopulate Gaza and turn it into a Riviera, the real story about the U.S. and Israel was hiding in plain sight. Instead of making it clear to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that there's a new sheriff in town, he returned to Jerusalem from Washington with a blank check and an unshakable ally.
Whether you take Trump's Gaza gambit as a serious proposal, a way to engage the Arab states on Gaza, or a meaningless disruption, it deflected from the more important takeaways from Netanyahu's visit. Trump was far from demanding follow through on the Israel-Hamas ceasefire agreement and appeared to buy-onto Netanyahu's views on destroying Hamas. For now, he and Netanyahu seemed to have entered a Vulcan mind meld.
Netanyahu's visit with the Trump Administration turned out to be more positive than he could ever have imagined. Beforehand, Netanyahu was facing a crisis within his coalition: six of his right-wing ministers resigned over what they saw as a "reckless" ceasefire deal. Netanyahu narrowly clung onto power by promising other right-wing ministers that the war could resume after the initial phase of the ceasefire.
But when Trump made his announcement on the Gaza takeover plan, the Israeli right, who have been pushing for emigration from Gaza all along, were thrilled. Netanyahu became the proverbial cat who swallowed the canary.
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Even more good news awaited Netanyahu in Washington. Since the war's outset, Netanyahu has been adamant that fighting won't end until Hamas is destroyed. Trump, Netanyahu learned, is on the same page: "In our meetings today, the prime minister and I focused on the future, discussing how we can work together to ensure Hamas is eliminated." U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio doubled down on this message during his visit to Israel, arguing that "Hamas must be eradicated."
Endorsing Hamas' demise will harden their bargaining position, making the organization less likely to release Israeli hostages. Weeks of Hamas' public shows of force at hostage hand-off rallies, including last week's macabre ceremony to hand over the bodies of Israeli hostages, will likely only strengthen Netanyahu's determination to "eliminate" Hamas. Trump has given Netanyahu a wide margin to maneuver the continuation of the deal: when asked if he would be "fine" with Netanyahu's decision to prioritize either the lives of hostages or the destruction of Hamas, Trump replied twice, "I am, I really am."
Trump's Gaza gambit holds yet another advantage for Israel's right-wing government, outsourcing the burden of Gaza's "day after" onto America's Arab partners. Arab countries, who are loath to see the Palestinians kicked out of Gaza, are scrambling to come up with their own plan, likely with Gulf-funded reconstruction and a deal to sideline Hamas. Gaza has become an Arab problem. Indeed, Rubio explained, "The only plan is the Trump plan. So if they've got a better plan, now's the time to present it."
As the self-styled most pro-Israeli president in history, Trump has delivered in his first month. On his first day in office, he signed an executive order rolling back Biden-era sanctions targeting violent Israeli settlers in the West Bank; he also reversed Biden's hold on the export of 2,000-pound bombs to Israel. More recently, the State Department announced the approval of $7.4 billion in military sales to Israel, and Trump also acquiesced to Israel's requests for flexibility in implementation of the ceasefire deal with Lebanon.
Credit: Studio DMM Photography, Designs & Art; Ivan Kurmyshov/ Shutterstock; The White House, Shealeah Craighead/ Wikimedia /Artwork: Anastasia Shub
Trump has also tacitly accepted Israeli activity in the West Bank. The day after Trump's inauguration, Israeli security forces launched an operation "Iron Wall" in the West Bank to "preempt and catch the terrorists before they reach our citizens." Roughly 40,000 Palestinian civilians have since been displaced, the largest in the territory since the 1967 War. Three more battalions were deployed to the West Bank since the botched bus bombing attack over the weekend, and settler attacks on Palestinian communities continue unabated amid issuing new tenders for the construction of settler homes. In the face of all of this, the Trump Administration has remained silent. And while Trump hasn't taken a position on annexation yet, he promised to "over the next four weeks." That Trump didn't come right out and question the need for annexation is quite worrisome.
But this could all shift. Trump changes his mind like many folks change their socks, and Netanyahu, now seemingly Trump's pet prime minister, might find himself in the doghouse.
Trump could also refocus on another Middle East priority, Saudi-Israeli normalization. But between the Saudi need for cover, Israel's creeping annexation of the West Bank, Netanyahu's anathema to any commitment to Palestinian statehood, and Gaza in shambles, an acceptable solution seems unlikely. Instead, Trump may find himself presiding over the death of the two-state solution.
Meanwhile, an even bigger distractions beckon: a Trump peace initiative to end Russia's war against Ukraine, which could prove either another ill-conceived Gaza gambit or put Trump on the road to a Nobel Prize, which he says he won't get but almost certainly craves.
President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speak during a news conference in the East Room of the White HouseCredit: Alex Brandon,AP
Nobody in Trump's world seems to last very long, and Netanyahu – now a shiny object – could easily fade. Relations were far from rosy at the end of Trump's last administration. Trump is all about winning, ending wars and delivering results that make him look good. Netanyahu's tendency to overplay his hand could get him into hot water with the thin-skinned, mercurial and self-interested president.
Any number of scenarios could sour these currently sweet relations: the emergence of an Arab plan that Trump likes but Netanyahu rejects; the resumption of military action in Gaza; Trump's interest in Saudi-Israeli normalization; or differences on what to do with respect to Iran's putative nuclear capabilities.
Indeed, Netanyahu has demonstrated a unique capacity to alienate U.S. presidents, both Democrats and Republicans, and we suspect Trump won't be an exception. Moving forward, it's hard to imagine that the Netanyahu-Trump bromance will endure.
Aaron David Miller is a Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment and a former State Department Middle East analyst and negotiator in Republican and Democratic administrations. His latest book is "End of Greatness: Why America Can't Have (and Doesn't Want) Another Great President" (St. Martin's Press). Twitter: @aarondmiller2
Lauren Morganbesser is a Junior Fellow in the American Statecraft program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.